Divisional Round Playoff Predictions

Saturday 4:30 PM ET: New Orleans Saints at San Francisco 49ers

            The unstoppable force meets the immovable object.  Unstoppable is not an overstatement either; Brees and the Saints’ offense have been rolling on all cylinders and have shown no signs of slowing down.  One piece of information that I have noticed many experts and analysts using against New Orleans is the fact that they have struggled when playing outdoors.  When playing without a dome this year, the Saints were 3 and 2 (13 and 3 overall), which may or not be significant.  You could argue that 60-degree weather may not affect a dome team as much as numbers suggest, but the Saints have averaged a full two touchdowns less in those games.  What I keep coming back to are the memories of exciting, high-flying, flashy offenses being stopped in their tracks by a big boy defense (as the Ravens and Steelers have shown us in many recent years).  As incredible as Drew Brees has been all year, I really think that we could see an instance where he actually has some issues throwing those accurate, 20-yard missiles downfield that he has made look so easy.  In a year that has definitely been a breeze for the New Orleans offense, this one looks more like a grind.

            On the other side of the field, the matchup is Alex Smith and the Frisco offense against the soft defensive unit for the Saints.  People keep looking at Smith’s past seasons, where his numbers and lack of success had him going down a road similar to so many “1^st Overall Pick” busts before him, and fail to recognize the success he has had this year under a true quarterback’s coach, Jim Harbaugh.  While his stats still don’t dazzle, he is more than capable of leading an offense, as he has shown this year.  There is nothing about this unit that Smith is facing that really discourages taking shots downfield and attacking weaknesses.

Prediction -    SF: 24 NO: 21

Saturday 8:00 PM ET: Denver Broncos at New England Patriots

            I love Tim Tebow and will, without a doubt, be wearing his number 15 jersey on Saturday night.  That being said, I think this year’s magical run is over when the Broncos go into Gillette Stadium to play the New England Patriots.  While he deserves all the credit in the world for playing the best game of his career against the (although injured) best defense in football, Tebow will be tortured to the point of insanity by Bill Belichick and his defensive schemes designed to take advantage of young quarterbacks like himself.  Unless Denver gets their running game moving early on, forcing the defense to play up on the Tebow-McGahee option, there won’t be many points scored on that side of the field.

            The Broncos’ defense is one of the biggest reasons – if not the biggest – for this years magical run.  Let’s be honest though, as good as they are, they are not “Stop Tom Brady” good.  This man probably holds the record (among others) for crushing more hopes and dreams than anyone else in history. He is that good.  When you think you have him where you want him: losing a game late in the second half;  he comes back at you like something out of a horror movie.  Don’t get me wrong, I will be Tebowing and acting a fool if the Broncos find a way to pull this off, but I don’t think it will happen.

Prediction -    NE: 28 DEN: 17

Sunday 1:00 PM ET: Houston Texans at Baltimore Ravens

            Smashmouth football at its finest.  Both teams have their top-of-the-line running backs pitted against top-of-the-line defenses.  The biggest difference that I see between these two is at quarterback: Joe Flacco is under center for Baltimore, and some Yates guy is going to do his best to hand the ball off to Arian Foster.   I may be underselling the Texans QB a little, but not much.  Since he has had to take over the offense thanks to injuries, he has played what some would call “game manager” football.  To me, that translates to “Let’s get the ball out of this guy’s hands and work around him.”

            Flacco hasn’t been too impressive in his past playoff appearances, but with no injuries and another year under his belt, he should do just fine.  The Ravens have looked like the best team in football (at least to me) for most of the year and I believe they will play up to their potential, at least for one more week.

Prediction -    BAL: 20 HOU: 14

Sunday 4:30 PM ET: New York Giants at Green Bay Packers

            The wild card Giants that got hot at the right time have to go through Lambeau Field and the almighty Packers in order to advance.

Sound familiar?

            Aaron Rodgers wasn’t a factor in that game, as he was still waiting for his chance behind Brett Favre, but a lot was different then.  These teams even played earlier this year, in week 13 actually, and Rodgers one-upped Eli Manning and the Giants, 38-35 as the Big Blue pass rush seemed to be one step behind the elusive QB all afternoon. Since that matchup, both teams have changed significantly: Green Bay has gotten healthy in key areas such as wide receiver and the offensive line, and New York’s defense has done a 180 and is looking very similar to the group in ’08.

            Even as a Giants fan, I give a slight edge to Rodgers over Manning at quarterback.  However, I have more confidence in Eli to put the team on his back when everything else is going wrong around him.  This may cause some Packers fans outrage in games where they have to come from behind to score late, Rodgers looks more good than great.  The Giants should move the ball well against the Green Bay defense and the running game that has absent most of the year should help considerably.

            The key matchup to this game is Aaron Rodgers versus the New York pass rush.  If Rodgers is able to move around outside the pocket and make guys miss like he has all year, the Giants don’t have a chance.  What should be noted is the return of Osi Umenyiora, and JPP’s level of play.  This defense is more confident that it has been in years (some say overconfident), and for good reason.  It is not going to be easy to beat the Pack in their own house, but it is far from impossible.

Prediction -    NYG: 35 GB: 31

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The Jets Have Bigger Problems Than Quarterback

The Jets are looking more like something from the movie “Airplane!” right now. They’re in a downward spiral, and nobody seems man enough to take the wheel. Not long after Offensive Coordinator Brian Shottenheimer was forced out New York replaced him with Tony Sparano, who probably has third degree burns from the hot seat in Miami that he had been sitting in for a few years. While all of this is happening, Jets players are anonymously taking shots at quarterback Mark Sanchez, and Rex Ryan – Mark’s biggest supporter – seems to be quieter than usual at the wrong time.
Wake up Rex, something’s afoot!
Someone better wake up and get this team together, and I don’t mean the third-string rookie quarterback. The “us against the world” mentality was all well and good when the Jets were winning playoff games last year, but that tough guy act may have played itself out. Once things started to go wrong for New York, nobody made an effort to step up and right the ship. You didn’t hear about Mark Sanchez giving “rah-rah” speeches in the locker room, or the defense that was supposed to be among the elite rallying around Bart Scott or anyone else.
I’m really starting to doubt there are any leaders at all on this team and, even though Sanchez’s lack of progress or leadership is a part of the issue, there is something much larger that is wrong with this team, something deeply corrupt with the team’s attitude that is affecting them like a cancer.
Players (without showing their face, of course) are calling for the Jets to make a move to acquire Peyton Manning this offseason. When I sat back and thought about this, it actually made me laugh a little. To me, this is the equivalent of the team saying: “Screw it, get someone else to come and fix this.” I wouldn’t doubt that Peyton Manning might have what it takes to get this team going in the right direction, but if you were Peyton would you really want to step foot anywhere near this team that threw its QB under the bus after a disappointing year? Even if Christmas comes early for the Jets and they land Manning, they have to find a solution to this unity problem. Someone – or a few people – need to take charge and try to land this plane because right now they are on their own and on a direct path to crash and burn.

MVP: Rodgers or Brees?

What does MVP mean?  Is it the guy that puts up Madden numbers all year, although his team fails to make the playoffs, or is it the guy who is the heart and soul of his team’s success?  Of course, neither Drew Brees nor Aaron Rodgers have had trouble winning games, and both are the “glue” that brings the team together, but does one really deserve it more than the other?

One could make an argument this year more than ever that there should be co-MVP’s, probably because they played so similar statistically and it’s hard to give one stat more weight than the next.  I think the co-MVP argument is a cop-out though, there have been close races like this one in the past and even though picking a winner may make the runner-up feel like they’ve been robbed, it is the right thing to do.  I feel like this extraordinary season for passers fired up the “who is the best QB in the league” more than recent years, and it would be a disappointment to see such an epic competition end in a tie.  “You Play To Win the Game!”  Herm Edwards had a point.

If it was up to me to choose this year’s MVP, I would have to give it to Brees.  As integral of a part that Rodgers was to the Packers success, I argue that the Saints relied on Drew’s success just a bit more.  It should be noted that Rodgers did sit out the final game of the season, but that shouldn’t take away from all of the passing numbers that Drew put up.  Also, in the final game where Rodgers sat out and called the offensive plays for backup Matt Flynn, Flynn threw for a Green Bay record 480 yards and 6 touchdowns.  A popular knock on Aaron Rodgers and his early success in the league was that his numbers were the result of playing in a system that many passes could do.  While I don’t buy a second of that argument and anyone who watches him for a second can see that Aaron is a special player, I think that when the backup quarterback stepped in (with Rodgers’ help) and had little difficulty working the offense, maybe some of Aarons numbers should be taken with a grain of salt.

In this past year, Drew Brees attempted 657 passes, a number that was only bested by Matthew Stafford’s 662.  Rodgers finished with 155 less attempts than Brees, which I think is significant when trying to determine how central each is to his offense’s success.  I think that the weapons that each QB has at his disposal just about equals out, with Sproles and Graham for the Saints, and guys like Jennings and Nelson for the Pack.  Rodgers comes out on top of Brees with an NFL-record quarterback rating (122.5 to Brees’ 110.6) and touchdown to interception ratio, but Drew has the edge in passing yards (5,476 compared to Rodgers’ 4,643), completion percentage (71.2 compared to 68.3), and touchdowns (46 to 45). Bottom line, I would think that Green Bay without Rodgers would fare slightly better than a New Orleans team without Brees, although both are scary thoughts for Packers and Saints fans.

Wild Card Week Wrap-Up, and a Look Ahead

Houston Texans 31     Cincinnati Bengals 10

            I honestly did not think that Andy Dalton and the Cincinnati Bengals were going to absolutely fall apart like they did, but I guess that’s what I get for putting my faith in a team that hasn’t shown up for big games all season.  In a game where I thought T.J. Yates was going to cost his team the game with rookie mistakes, it turned out being Andy Dalton who assumed that role.  Dalton finished with 259 yards and 3 picks, which is the kind of performance that should be expected from a young quarterback when he is forced to play from behind in a high-stakes game.   Yates completed 11 of his 20 passes for 159 yards and 1 Touchdown, yet again posting pedestrian numbers that didn’t hurt his team, but that’s all that his team needs him to do when Foster can carry the offensive workload.

A Look Ahead:  The Texans are going to have their hands full next week when they travel to Baltimore for the biggest game in the young franchise’s history.  They come face to face with one of the NFL’s best defenses and an elite running back in Ray Rice, but the Texans have an eerily similar team. This game has potential to be a classic smash-mouth showdown.

New Orleans Saints 45     Detroit Lions 28

            Going in to this game everyone expected an offensive outburst on both sides, and it definitely didn’t disappoint.  Brees one-upped Stafford (as expected), and the rushing attack of the Saints helped control the tempo of the game as it ate away at Detroit’s defense (also as expected).  As flashy as this game was with the long touchdown passes, it was nothing that the knowledgeable football public didn’t see coming.  Drew Brees and the best offense in the league were not going to be stopped this week, especially playing against a shoddy defense like this.

A Look Ahead:  New Orleans draws arguably the toughest defense they have faced all year when they head to Candlestick Park to play the ‘Niners.  The unstoppable force that is the Saints offense is put up against Patrick Willis and his immovable defense.  Matchups on both sides of the ball seem to be somewhat equal and should provide the crowd with an entertaining game, if not a suspenseful one.

New York Giants 24     Atlanta Falcons 2

            The Giants won big. Osi Umenyiora and the rest of the New York defense simply manhandled the Falcons in every way.  Matt Ryan and his squad failed to score when they had the ball and couldn’t get anything started offensively, even  in garbage time.  Eli Manning threw for over 300 yards and a career postseason high 3 TDs while the running game that has been absent all year made its presence felt.  Kevin Gilbride called an uncharacteristically aggressive game, which contributed to the feeling of dominance that the Giants exuded all game.  This one was never in question.

A Look Ahead:  In a rematch of a week 13 game where the Packers defeated the Giants on a last-second field goal, Coach Coughlin leads his white-hot team back into Lambeau Field.  The last time New York played on the historic frozen tundra, Lawrence Tynes kicked the Giants into the Super Bowl after a late Favre interception.  The Packers are coming off of a bye week, and look to keep their incredible season rolling behind likely-MVP Aaron Rodgers.  This game interests me the most out of any this week, and not only because I’m a Giants fan.  I have an odd feeling that an instant classic may be coming our way.

Denver Broncos 29     Pittsburgh Steelers 23

            I had predicted the Broncos winning this game – and wholeheartedly believed they would – but even as a Tim Tebow supporter, I had no idea that he would come through like he did on Sunday.  All game, the Steelers defense (or what was left of it) played close to the line to defend the option offense that Denver has been running.  They were pretty much daring Tim to throw on them, and he did.  If you told someone before the game that Tebow would throw for 316 yards against the league’s best defense, they would either walk away after making some sort of explicit comment about Tebow or respond with violence.  Big Ben played well considering his injury, but eventually the pass rush of the Broncos got to him and set up the offense for a “Mile High Miracle”.

A Look Ahead:  No doubt that the Broncos and all of their fans are ecstatic after their signature win Sunday, but one could argue that New England and their fans could be even happier.  With offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels returning to his roots, the Patriots offense is a force to be reckoned with.  The Denver defense that didn’t have too much trouble containing a hobbled Roethlisberger may have met their match here.  The group that Tebow has to face is nothing stellar, but I expect Belichick to give him some defensive looks that will put him in a difficult position.  Who knows though, Tebow may just be baiting us in like he did with the Steelers’ secondary.