NFC Championship Game Prediction

NFC Championship Game: New York Giants at San Francisco 49ers   6:30 PM ET

So here we are at the NFC Championship Game, and instead of a Drew Brees/Aaron Rodgers shootout, we have another (unlikely) chapter to add to a storied rivalry between San Fran and New York.

These teams have met in the postseason on quite a few occasions – with many of the contests being defined by a single play or going down to the last second – and this is a game that will surely be one that both teams will remember for a long time.  In their latest meeting, San Francisco mounted a historic comeback and took down the Giants as New York botched a field goal snap as time was winding down in a 2002 Wild Card Game.  This series has had its fair share of classic moments in the past: The signature over the 49ers in 1985 when the Giants held Joe Montana and Roger Craig’s group to 3 points, as well as the ’91 New York team putting the kibosh on the Montana dynasty among many others.  Bottom line, these teams have some of the NFL’s most classic playoff matchups.

What I find interesting is how both teams are painted as heroes of the NFL, with both teams being led by stand-up coaches: In San Francisco’s case, Jim Harbaugh took over a team that was 6-10 the year before and leading them to The NFC Title Game in the following year.  Tom Coughlin is the guy that – once again – went from being on the hot seat to being the man that all of New York wants to stand behind.  These two coaches – more so than any others – have found ways to instill the belief in their team that it is in their destiny to win it all.  As wonderful as each of their stories are, there is only room for one in the Super bowl.

Alex Smith and the 49er’s offense played great last week against the Saints, opening up the pass early and letting Smith pick apart the weak New Orleans secondary.  Although Smith has put together the best year of his career, the red-hot Giants pass rush will give him problems.  If the defensive line keeps up the level of play that has defined their team’s recent victories, San Francisco could be forced to play catch-up early on.

When these teams met in the regular season in week 10, New York faltered on a 4^th down attempt to tie the game as time was winding down and San Francisco pulled out the home victory.  Frisco did what few teams have been able to do this year, pressure Manning into making costly mistakes.  This is the area where the game’s outcome will be decided in my opinion.  The Giants should be able to limit the damage from Vernon Davis and the likes of the San Francisco offense, and it will be up to Eli to avoid turnovers and put points on the board.

As cliché as it sounds – Eli Manning’s responsibility will be to win his team this game.  He needs to put this team on his back – as he has all season – and find a way to beat a defensive unit that had stumped Big Blue earlier in the season.  This is a game that will help define both Manning’s and Smith’s careers, and one of the two will have to step up and be a playoff hero.  Manning will triumph where Smith fails.

Prediction – NYG: 27 SF: 14

Meet Alex Smith

As a former number one overall pick, Alex Smith is familiar with the word "pressure." I'm sure he is also familiar with the word "bust", as he has undoubtedly gotten an earful from every fan in the bay area along with all the analysts that have piled on criticism over his unlikely 7-year career.

    

Before this season, the only talk you heard of Smith was: "Why is he still getting chances? Year after year, he disappoints, yet the team brings him back?"

    

There were no supporters for this guy outside of the organization (if there were, they were awfully quiet for a long time), and few would believe you if you said he would be the starter after 7 years in the doghouse.  And not one person would take you seriously if you said he would salvage a lost career and lead his team through the playoffs and within striking distance of the Super Bowl.

    

Yet here he is.

    

It is improbable that Smith managed to find a job from year to year, but I think the biggest factor in his survival is such: Smith had 7 different Offensive Coordinators over a 7-season career.  You can't blame him for having to learn a new offense every summer, yet there have been a few quarterbacks who have been the scapegoat in similar situations such as Jason Campbell and David Carr. Smith also got lucky that his new coach is a believer in what he can do; John Harbaugh was actually the guy that made the decision to re-sign Alex even though he was a Free Agent.

    

The events that brought him to this point are fortunate, as well as unlikely.  These are some of the reasons why I'm starting to root for the guy.....starting next year.

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AFC Title Game Prediction

AFC Championship Game: Baltimore Ravens at New England Patriots   3:00 PM ET

On the surface, this game looks like unstoppable offense versus an immovable defense, but it’s not.  It’s an inspired defensive group, trying to avoid another postseason collapse versus Tom Brady and a gelling defense that are still itching to get Super Bowl redemption.   This game has potential to be another classic matchup between the two; who knows, this may be one that is played over and over on NFL Films for years to come. 

In their only postseason meeting in 2009, the Ravens had Tom Brady’s number.  Baltimore intercepted him 3 times and limited him to 154 yards passing.  Although turning the league’s best playoff quarterback against his own team is an incredible feat, it doesn’t lower my confidence in Brady at all.  If I had to put my trust in any athlete to overcome a past performance, I would go with Brady.  I know that in last week’s predictions, I was raving quite a bit over how much of a lock he is in the playoffs.  As silly as I was being, I wasn’t really exaggerating – he really is that good.  Any goon can look at his career statistics and tell you that he has the numbers of a Hall of Famer, but the real magic of Brady lies in watching him navigate the pocket, calling an audible at the line of scrimmage, deliver one pinpoint throw after another (always keeping his eyes downfield), and doing all of this while making opposing fans feel like they are dumb teenagers in a slasher movie.  This man has been knocked down before, but nobody has managed to keep him down.

As dangerous as Tom Brady may be to Baltimore’s defense, the other matchup may very well be the one that defines this game.  Ray Rice is the most important piece of the Raven’s offensive puzzle and -- without him getting a majority of the touches – they have shown inconsistency when they have to rely heavier on Joe Flacco to throw them to victory.  This has not been a problem for most of the year, as the 13-3 Ravens have had little trouble establishing Rice all season.  However, people seem to forget about the Bill Belichick’s brilliant play calling and his ability to take away a team’s biggest offensive threat.  Although the Pats have struggled throughout most of the regular season, in their recent games, they have found ways to slow their opponents down enough to the point where they cannot keep up with Brady’s – and Josh McDaniels’ – offense.  This bend-but-don’t-break philosophy has once again proven itself to work, as long as it is paired with a potent offense.  Besides, if Belichick is able to slow down the Baltimore running game to the point where Flacco is forced to air it out, this one could be over early.

Prediction – NE: 31 BAL 17

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Johnny Damon - Back to the Yankees?

There are sources saying that the Yankees would be more likely to bring back fan favorite Johnny Damon than land Carlos Pena.  If this actually ends up happening, then I would be a pretty content fan.  Although Pena would be a great addition to the New York lineup, Damon is a fair and reliable substitute.  Also, Damon – even though he is a bit older – has been a consistent hitter throughout his career, and consistency is something that is lacking in a batting order full of streaky players.

The fact that he is 38 years old should definitely be taken into account, but the numbers that he is still putting up are quite respectable.  In this past year, Johnny Damon had 16 home runs and 73 RBI – numbers that could increase when taking into consideration the dangerous bats backing him up in the lineup as well as the transition to a hitter’s ballpark.  If he can produce at anywhere near the same level that he has throughout his remarkable career, the Yanks will benefit from having him.

He would be great for the team’s winning persona, as he adds to the atmosphere in the clubhouse, and already has established himself to the organization and fan base through his seasons of success in the recent past.

Another interesting note:  Damon is only 277 hits away from 3000.  That means that if New York does decide to sign him for a 2 or 3 year deal, it would open up the opportunity for another historic moment for a legend in pinstripes.  I’m also pretty sure that John Sterling would be happy to dig up some of those old cheesy home-run calls.

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Eli - Against All Odds - Again

Everyone heard what Eli Manning said at the beginning of this year about being in the same elite class as Tom Brady.  People laughed at the idea, it was so preposterous. Sure, Manning led his team to victory over Brady's in Super Bowl XLII, but that was just a freakish streak of games for a quarterback that had a terrific surrounding cast.

Of course when you compare yourself to the golden boy of the NFL (the one without a neck brace), you are bound to rub some people the wrong way.  At that point in his career Eli had beaten Brett Favre in the NFC Title game at Lambeau field and Brady in the Super Bowl, which -- as impressive as it is-- is not enough to compare yourself to one of the all-time greats.  Eli just spoke his mind and showed a rare bit of vocal self-confidence, and a whole can of worms (labeled "Elite Quarterbacks") was opened.

This added another little storyline to the Giants/Patriots matchup in week 9. Up to that point in the season, both Manning and Brady had played top-notch football and ranked among the cream of the crop statistically.  In what will go down as one of the best regular season games in Giants history, Eli one-upped Brady and the Pats with two touchdowns as time was winding down.  As expected, this only made an ugly and over-publicized issue worse.  Whenever ESPN wasn't caught up in Tebowmania, they would debate where Manning ranked in the quarterback pecking order.

As the season went on and the Giants began to struggle, the conversation seemed to lull until week 13 when Aaron Rodgers' Packers invaded Metlife Stadium.  Manning hung with Green Bay's QB the duration of the game, but New York's defense just looked foolish for 60 minutes as Rodgers shredded the secondary whenever the ball was in his hands.  The Giants' woes continued as they fell 38-35.

Manning's play was the one constant through a season of ups and downs, but eventually the defense came together just in time.  With wins over the Jets and Cowboys in the last two games of the season, Eli's team managed to slip into the postseason with a 9-7 record.

In the first round, New York drew a home game against the Atlanta Falcons where they dominated every aspect of the game.  Matt Ryan's offense failed to score once while Manning's unit scored three times through the air, en route to a 24-2 New York victory that set up a rematch with the 15-1 Packers.

Once again, in order for the Giants to advance to the Super Bowl, they had to go through Lambeau.  Considering that Green Bay receivers dropped 8 passes, Aaron Rodgers played another great game, but Manning managed to outplay another Packers quarterback on a playoff stage and brought his team to the NFC Title game for the second time in five years.

Now here we are.  The Giants are one win away from a possible rematch with Tom Brady in the Super Bowl, but you can bet that the Pats will be ready this time.

Nobody is laughing at Manning now.  In what has been the best season of his career Eli has added several signature wins to his resume, this time without the help on an elite defense.  Eli's provocative statement at the beginning of the year now seems a whole lot less silly.

At this point, I don't think that Eli has any doubt that he is on Brady's level, it's just the rest of the sports world that is still stubbornly holding onto doubts.  Eli has an opportunity to add to his growing pile of accolades by possibly advancing in the tournament and defeating Tom Brady's Patriots.  Again. 

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